How Tinubu Brought His Horse to Politics: A Master Class in Power, Patience, and the 2027 Coalition Puzzle

By Daniel Okonkwo:

How Tinubu Brought His Horse to Politics: A Master Class in Power, Patience, and the 2027 Coalition Puzzle

The fundamental question as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections is: who will Nigerians vote for? If conditions remain unchanged, this administration may find it difficult to secure a victory. However, history reminds us that Nigerians have often voted for the same parties they once criticized. As such, the All Progressives Congress (APC)—despite the controversies surrounding its performance—could very well remain in power for a consecutive 16 years.

In Yoruba, the phrase “Emi l’okan” translates to “It is my turn.” President Bola Ahmed Tinubu boldly declared this long before he took office. His confidence was not merely ambition; it was a declaration—a political stake. He claimed his place, reminding Nigerians:

"If not for me, Buhari wouldn’t have become president. He tried and failed three times. He even wept on national television and swore never to run again. But I went to Kaduna, convinced him to run one more time, and promised to stand by him. I told him, ‘Don’t joke with the Yorubas.’ He agreed. The rest is history."

Tinubu didn’t just stumble into power; he strategized his way into Aso Rock. The question is: Can he win again in 2027? Does he still have the political structure to do so? And if not him, who else truly has what it takes?

In Nigerian politics, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stands out for his unrelenting ambition, deep strategic thinking, and unrivaled coalition-building skills. His ascent to the presidency wasn’t a fluke—it was the product of decades of meticulous planning, tactical maneuvering, and political patience. Anyone closely monitoring the current political climate knows this: Unseating Tinubu in 2027 will be a formidable challenge.

The reasons are many, but the most glaring is the disunity within the opposition. The much-discussed coalition lacks coherence, vision, and a unified leadership. It is, in essence, a coalition designed to fail. And before anyone accuses me of bias, allow me to walk you through how Tinubu brought his horse to the political battlefield—and why his playbook is unmatched.

The phrase “power is not given; it is taken” perfectly captures Tinubu’s journey. From his early days in the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and his alliance with Chief M.K.O. Abiola, Tinubu positioned himself as a political force-a man of action, not passivity.

He didn’t wait for power to be handed to him; he created platforms, built alliances, shaped narratives, and established political machinery that made him indispensable in Nigerian politics. He understood early on that passivity is a liability in politics.

Taking a page from Roman Emperor Augustus, who famously lived by the motto festina lente (“make haste slowly”), Tinubu moved steadily—never rushed, never reckless, but always strategic. Every move—whether appointments, alliances, or public silence—was part of a grand design. Like Augustus, he knew lasting power requires subtlety, timing, and persistence.

In Hollywood, major roles are fought for with grit and creativity. Jamie Foxx, who landed the iconic role of Django in Django Unchained, once shared how he brought his horse, Tony, to the audition. This gave him an edge—confidence, familiarity, and authenticity.

Tinubu did the same in Nigerian politics. He brought his “horse”—his extensive grassroots network, loyal political machinery, and coalition strategy rooted not just in ideology, but in loyalty, patronage, and long-term reward systems.

Like Jamie Foxx, Tinubu didn’t just show up—he came prepared. He had already built the Action Congress (AC), evolved it into the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and was instrumental in the creation of the All Progressives Congress (APC). This was no accident—it was the strategic groundwork of a master planner.

The current opposition faces a fundamental challenge: fragmentation. Each major player believes he alone has the best shot at the presidency:

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso believes in his strong Northern base.

Atiku Abubakar believes his legacy and political capital remain strong.

Peter Obi has built a youth-driven, ideologically energized movement.

But the question remains: Who among them is willing to step down for the other? None has shown that level of compromise. Without consensus, unity, or a shared candidate, the opposition vote will split and Tinubu will benefit.

Unlike many opponents who rely heavily on emotions, outrage, or online movements, Tinubu understands grassroots politics. He has a loyal army of ward leaders, governors, legislators, and stakeholders who deliver votes where they matter most.

Moreover, incumbency in Nigeria brings real advantages. Access to state institutions, resources, appointments, and media coverage creates a platform that no challenger can easily replicate. Tinubu’s strategic appointments and recalibrations since 2023 show that he is not just reacting he is consolidating power.

His ability to adapt and evolve—a rare trait in Nigerian politics—is another edge. While others remain fixed in their rhetoric, Tinubu recalibrates, negotiates, and plays the long game. His opponents often launch emotional attacks; he plays chess.

Jamie Foxx's success in Django Unchained wasn’t about just acting—it was about authenticity, preparedness, and ownership of his role. Similarly, Tinubu’s success in Nigerian politics comes from the years of preparation, strategic alliances, and understanding the system better than anyone else.

In a game of politics, Tinubu doesn’t play to the gallery—he plays for the win. He sees the whole board while others are chasing pawns. As the opposition continues to scramble for relevance and unity, Tinubu is already several moves into the endgame.

This is not to say Tinubu’s presidency has delivered economic or social miracles. Nigerians are facing hardship, and public dissatisfaction is real. But in politics, strategy often trumps sentiment. Unless the opposition can build a solid, united front with a coherent vision, 2027 may already be written in ink.

In the end, it is the Nigerian people who hold the ultimate power but only if they act. Power is not given. It is taken. And unless voters organize, strategize, and mobilize, Tinubu will once again ride his horse into victory.

Daniel Okonkwo is a seasoned writer, human rights advocate, and public affairs analyst. He is known for his thought-provoking articles on governance, justice, and social equity. As a political writer and commentator with Profile International Human Rights Advocate, Daniel specializes in political analysis, governance, and socio-economic discourse in Nigeria. Through his work, he continues to spotlight critical issues affecting Nigeria and beyond, amplifying voices that demand accountability, reform, and meaningful change.